US Baby Formula Plants Quietly Doubled Capacity in 18 Months

Abbott, Reckitt, Perrigo, and ByHeart together added roughly 1.4B oz of annual US formula capacity since 2023. The FDA's emergency import pathway, which let European brands like Kendamil onto US shelves, is sunsetting in mid-2026.

The 2022 crisis exposed a fragile four-supplier oligopoly. The fix — domestic CapEx plus a regulated re-narrowing of imports — restores supply security but risks re-concentrating the category before new entrants can scale.

Imported European brands could lose 60%+ of their US shelf space by year-end. Domestic challengers like ByHeart and Bobbie will compete for the freed-up facings. WIC contract awards in 2026 will set the channel for the next 5 years.

Parents who switched to European formulas during the shortage built strong brand loyalty around 'cleaner' EU standards. Forcing them back to domestic brands without a clear ingredient story will trigger DTC and gray-market workarounds.

Domestic brands need to publicly match EU ingredient standards (no corn syrup solids, organic dairy options) before the import door closes — otherwise the consumer narrative stays anti-US-formula even after shelves refill.