The Egg Price Cliff: Why Wholesale Just Collapsed

After 18 months of record highs from avian flu culls, US wholesale egg prices have fallen sharply — and bakeries, foodservice, and CPG are scrambling to renegotiate forward contracts.

By FTW Editorial·May 13, 2026·5 min read

The Egg Price Cliff: Why Wholesale Just Collapsed

The avian flu egg shock is finally unwinding, but the price drop is moving faster than supply contracts can adjust.

What happened

USDA reports indicate the US laying flock has substantially recovered, and wholesale egg prices have fallen by more than half from their 2024-2025 peaks, with foodservice contracts lagging the spot market by 4-8 weeks.

Why it matters

Operators that locked in high forward contracts during the panic are now paying significantly above spot, while competitors on shorter contracts are pocketing the spread — a meaningful short-term margin gap.

Market impact

Expect a wave of "egg is back" promotional pushes from diners and breakfast concepts, plus a procurement playbook revision across CPG bakery and pasta makers.

Consumer insight

Restaurant menus that quietly removed eggy items (frittatas, custards, premium baked goods) during the spike are slow to bring them back, holding back demand recovery.

Strategic takeaway

If youre an operator on a forward contract, the renegotiation conversation is overdue. If youre a CPG, reformulating away from egg replacers introduced during the spike is now a margin opportunity.

#eggs #commodities #avian-flu #foodservice #procurement

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