Olive Oil Prices Reset After Two-Year Mediterranean Drought

Spain's 2025/26 olive harvest came in roughly 50% above the prior year, pulling wholesale extra-virgin olive oil prices from $9,000+/ton lows to around $5,500/ton. Retail shelf prices in the US and EU have only partially followed — most premium brands have held within 10% of peak.

Two years of supply shock taught shoppers that olive oil is a premium ingredient, not a commodity. The trade-up to single-origin and PDO labels appears sticky even as prices ease at the lower end.

Expect private label and value brands to recapture some volume as wholesale costs normalize, while premium brands defend mid-tier price points with origin storytelling and harvest-date transparency.

A meaningful slice of US households now treat olive oil like wine — varietal, region, and harvest year matter. The category has more in common with specialty coffee than with cooking oil.

Brands should lock in long-term grower relationships now, before the next supply shock. The premium tier will keep growing — but only for brands that can prove provenance.