CPG
Fresh-Frozen Pet Food Enters Mainstream Grocery
The Farmer's Dog and Freshpet expand chilled aisle as kibble share erodes.
By FTW Editorial·May 20, 2026·5 min read
Fresh and frozen pet food is moving from DTC subscriptions into the main grocery freezer and chilled cases, eroding kibble share at unprecedented speed.
What happened
Freshpet expanded to 28,000 US grocery doors. The Farmer's Dog launched its first retail SKUs through Target in March. Mars and Nestlé Purina both acquired fresh-pet-food startups in 2025. Fresh and frozen now represents 11% of pet food dollars, up from 4% in 2020.
Why it matters
Pet humanization is the longest-running megatrend in CPG, and fresh food is its logical endpoint. Kibble is structurally challenged the same way frozen TV dinners were in the 2000s — convenient, but unable to defend against 'real food' positioning.
Market impact
Expect kibble's dollar share to fall below 60% by 2030. Cold-chain logistics will become the key battlefield, advantaging brands and retailers with grocery infrastructure.
Consumer insight
Pet owners are willing to pay 3-5x more per meal for fresh, framing it as healthcare rather than food. The wellness-spend mental model has fully transferred from human food to pet food.
Strategic takeaway
If you're in pet food, your 2026 capex priority is cold-chain capability. Brands without it will be locked out of the highest-growth segment by 2028.
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