Meal Kits Quietly Return — But Smaller

HelloFresh subscriber count declined 14% in 2025. Meanwhile, Splendid Spoon, Factor (Nestlé), and ModifyHealth all grew 40%+. Medicare Advantage plans now reimburse meal kits for chronic conditions in 23 states.

Mass-market meal kits failed because they competed with restaurants and grocery on convenience without winning either. Vertical kits compete on outcomes — blood sugar, recovery, weight loss — where the value is measurable and reimbursable.

Expect 60% of meal-kit growth through 2028 to come from medically-reimbursed or condition-specific kits. The B2C subscription model is being replaced by B2B2C through health plans.

Consumers don't want 'a meal kit,' they want 'a meal that helps them.' The successful brands have stopped marketing the kit and started marketing the outcome.

If you're in meal kits or prepared foods, get a clinical claim or Medicare reimbursement pathway in development. Without one, you're playing in the shrinking 30% of the category.